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Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Santa Clara County, California

I put together some charts for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Santa Clara County, California. The raw data comes from Santa Clara County’s official release. Which means that the charts below are based on 100% facts. The interpretation of the charts is my personal opinion only and should not be taken as facts.

Update 2020.03.17:

  • Total number of deaths are 5 as of today.

Update 2020.03.15:

Update 2020.03.14:

  • SCC has stopped publishing numbers for Recovered patients and Home Isolation. So those numbers are assumptions.

Update 2020.03.12:

Since the original post five days ago, Santa Clara County has stopped publishing detailed information about cases. Here are the charts with the latest official updates I could find.

  • ‘Exponential’ part is becoming more prominent now.
  • Nearly half of the patients are hospitalized. I read that as half of the known cases are in serious condition. The home isolation numbers are not being published by SCC anymore but they are the left over numbers from other categories.
  • Since last update, the community spread is more defined now. Nearly quarter of all cases are community spread. 35% are still unknown which are most likely community spread as well making. Assuming that, it makes 70% of all cases community spread.

Original Post 2020.03.07:

  • First two confirmed cases were on 1/31 and 2/2. Third case was confirmed on 2/28 and has been exponential since then. Most likely that indicates that not many patients were screened until 2/28. Or it could mean that patients were screened in February but the COVID-19 was still in the incubation period and not showing up positive in tests.
  • Only 16% of the confirmed cases are related to travel, which brought the virus from outside the country to Santa Clara county.
  • 3% is community spread, meaning that patient got infected from someone else which they didn’t know were infected. 31% is person-to-person spread, meaning that they got infected from someone who later were known to have COVID-19.
  • Half of all cases still remain in investigation of how they spread. My gut feeling is that most of these cases will end up as community spread.
  • Infected people who are hospitalized are believed to be in critical conditions. 34% of these people are in critical condition. 41% are in home isolation, most likely they are healthy even though infected.
  • Since the spread looks to evenly infect among gender so far, this metrics might not be of importance.

Source:

  1. https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/home.aspx
  2. https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/known-cases-of-coronavirus.aspx
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